Hi all,
I've been thinking about buying Tomo's books for a while and only just came across his article about confirmation bias. You can indeed have a lot of fun with people if you understand the principles and I thought I'd share a true story with you, which only serves to strengthen Tomo's assertions:
I swear, every word of this is true!
My wife and I had been out to a friend's house for the evening. Now, my wife is blonde and is well known for being a bit scatty sometimes (all the time!). I cannot resist any opportunity to wind her up.
We were getting a lift home and were both sat in the back of a friend's car. Their street was laid out in such a way that directly across the narrow road from the houses was a wall and fields beyond. As we were reversing out the drive, I was looking along the road and spotted a telegraph pole just on the other side of the wall across the road. The unusual thing about said pole was that it had a For Sale sign nailed to it, in order to attract attention to the house directly opposite. The idea being the sign was far more visible there than on the garden wall.
Anyway, I said, completely in jest "Oh, look. There's a telegraph pole up for sale!", with a smirk. My wife looked and said "Oh yes!!! I've never seen anything like that before" - completely puzzled. Well, you can imagine the possibilities, can't you?! I had to.
"Yes" I said, "it's a new scheme they are trying out in conjunction with BT". "Really? I've not heard anything about it", she replied. "Oh yes, it's been trialled down south for a few months and they are now trying to get it going up here too. I'm really surprised you haven't heard about it on the news. Some people have become quite wealthy".
A golden opportunity presented itself and because she's blonde and we were looking to buy a house at the time, it was a perfect way of using her confirmation bias.
I went on to explain, completely off the cuff, that this scheme involved purchasing royalties of a percentage of all calls that go through any telephone lines attached to specific poles. BT and the government get a lump sum up front and you have a long term, potentially lucrative investment opportunity. She took this bait completely. How my friends sat in the front of the car kept straight faces, I'll never know.
I kept this one going for several weeks. It was only when my wife came home one evening confused as to why people at work were laughing so much when she tried to explain this scheme to them that I owned up. Needless to say, I was in trouble.
All I did was play on her very limited knowledge of property markets and investments. It was so plausible, she didn't question it at all and just accepted my explanation, particularly when I backed it up by stating it had been reported extensively by the BBC. It got me thinking about how some cons must work and how ridiculously easy they could be if the right person were selected. Very powerful stuff.
Anyway, sorry for the long post.
All the best,
Wishmaster.
