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I often start my table-hopping routine with the psi-cards. I do this straight, and ask the punter to test their psychic powers by naming the card I'm holding. I do this 5 times, and given that there are 5 symbols possible this gives the punter a 1 in 5 chance of getting it right by guesswork. Most punters get 1 or 0 out of their 5 attempts. Around 25% get 2 out of 5.

Only 2 people have ever got 3 out of 5 - which is the best I personally have witnessed. The two people who scored 3 out of 5 are actually quite interesting. The first one happened a while ago. She told me she was a professional psychic as I sat down with her. And fair play to her, she got the first 3 right.

The second "high scorer" happened last night at a home for people with mental illness. This was an old lady (perhaps 70 years old) who quite honestly didn't know what day it was. I hesitated in doing any kind of routine with her, but the staff and other patients gathered around me (I'll have nightmares for weeks) and urged me and her on. I was quite lost for words when the old dear then proceeded to name the first 3 cards correctly. The staff and other patients were "oohing" and "aahing" and the old lady realised that she was doing something good and started to get excited. Then she got the last 2 wrong. I honestly believe (though obviously I have no way of knowing this) that if the other patients and staff had kept quiet she would have got all 5. It was weird.

Now I'm no believer in ESP, psychics etc (although I use the terminology to spice up my act), but this event last night has certainly got me wondering about the complexities of the human mind.

Any thoughts?

Pure chance. The more you do it the higher the chance someone will get them all right.

Agreed. But the one thing that struck me as odd is the fact that the 2 people with the highest scores were a professional psychic and someone with a serious mental illness.

If the two high scorers were just average joes I wouldn't read anything into it at all. Agreed, it's probably all just chance - but hey, it makes a good story, and who knows! Perhaps Geller was right all along!!!

Perhaps I ought to forward that dear old lady from last night to Randi - see if I can't claim the million bucks (or whatever they're offering now)!

Actually - I think that in this circumstance real magic happened. Someone who noone really took seriously had a few minutes of fame and was able to create mystery and - even in you the performer.
How that was accomplished is, in my opinion, irrelevant. I think - don't try and 'control' the situation by explaining it - just enjoy the fact that you made a diference in someone's life

Yes, well said taneous.

But with ESP symbols there are choices that people are more likely to go for first of all, although you can never be 100% certain. You can use suggestion and the like and predictable patterns of human behaviour to put the cards in an order that you think they might go for. I've done a similar thing with a packet of eight cards before - red and black. Using some psychological techniques my spectator managed to correctly identify what colour each card was every single time. So such things are doable that way.

However, I doubt that it was real ESP. As ian69 said, it really is just to do with the law of probabilities. You might do it and have a run of occurances in which everyone got all five right every single time, but then you might do it another night and have no-one get it right.

The odds of getting all 5 cards are 'only' 120:1 so if you're doing this a lot it would be odd if it didn't happen at some point. The odds of getting 3 out of five right are going to be significantly lower than that. Doesn't sound statistically unusual.

It's also more than possible that the 'professional psychic' was familiar with the card system. They use the same props we do because they're not real psychics, remember?

Are you sure of your odds?

Isn't it something like 3125:1 ? I'm not that great with probabilities though...

..just out of interest how'd you work it out?

How did I work it out? Badly. Very badly.

If you're not great then I'm abysmal. You got it right and I got it hopelessly wrong. Now please ignore me and my last post while I try and pretend it didn't happen.

Thank you.

Actually no! Thinking about it I am right!

The first choice has a one in five chance of being right. The second a one in four etc. So it's 5*4*3*2*1 (obviously the final card must be correct if the other four are. This gives a probability of 120:1.

3125 is 5 to the power of 5. This would be a valid if the choice was 5 cards from five full sets of symbols, but it isn't. This means you can discount a lot of combinations like 5 circles, for instance. Since there is only one of each symbol available this cuts the odds dramatically. I stand by 120:1.

Yeah. 3125 would be right if the choice of cards resets itself back to five each time, but 120 is right when you recycle the dwindling pool of cards for the next go.

I agree. Chance for 5/5 is 5! = 1 in 120
3/5 is 5!/2! = 1 in 60

Now, a real psychic knows they're not 100% right, and goes with gut feelings. So it's possible to guess the same symbol twice. In that case The odds of getting all 5 cards are well, not 3125:1 but I dunno...

Charles Calthrop wrote:Actually no! Thinking about it I am right!

The first choice has a one in five chance of being right. The second a one in four etc. So it's 5*4*3*2*1 (obviously the final card must be correct if the other four are. This gives a probability of 120:1.

3125 is 5 to the power of 5. This would be a valid if the choice was 5 cards from five full sets of symbols, but it isn't. This means you can discount a lot of combinations like 5 circles, for instance. Since there is only one of each symbol available this cuts the odds dramatically. I stand by 120:1.

Yes you are correct. But so was I from a certain point of view

I believe we need more information on the test being performed...

Tomo - a chance for you to start up with some spreadsheets and data collection

Kati

The psi-deck I use has 5 of each emblem, totaling 25 cards in all. The cards are then presented at random. This I *think* makes the odds a lot harder than 120:1 which would be correct if I only presented the punter with 5 cards (one of each).

No idea what the actual odds for this are though! Would love to find out if we have any brain boxes present!

Assuming spec chooses 5 diff cards

Card 1: 5/25 = 1/5
Card 2: 5/24
Card 3: 5/23
Card 4: 5/22
Card 5: 5/21

Total 1/255024

But you have to add where the spec names cards more than once. I'll leave that to the next poster