Sylvia Browne and psychics

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Postby VoodooMick » Nov 24th, '07, 12:10



abraxus wrote:and I would hope that if someone was a psychic, wouldnt need me to write anything down...for verification purposes or no, and if I was going to lie, they should know that too... :wink: :lol:


I know the above quote was probably intended to be tongue-in-cheek but why do psychics have to know "everything"?! It seems so unfair!
Why does being psychic have to become synonymous with "absolutely-invincible-and-without-limitation"? What a load of tut!
There's been plenty of times the weather forecasters have predicted rain and it turned out sunny and I have never heard anyone doubting the validity of the science behind the process of weather forecasting.

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Postby AndyRegs » Nov 24th, '07, 12:14

There's been plenty of times the weather forecasters have predicted rain and it turned out sunny and I have never heard anyone doubting the validity of the science behind the process of weather forecasting.


But the are correct 95% of the time (apparently they get fined if they are out by much more, so my old geography teacher told me). I would accept that kind of hit rate from a psychic. I'll actually be kind and accept much less.

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Postby Tomo » Nov 24th, '07, 13:08

In defence of weather forecasters, the problem they work on is overwhelmingly complex. Trying to compute the weather even a little way into the future requires massive supercomputing power to stand any chance of getting it "right". And no, they're not fined for getting it wrong. It's not the opinion of the person on TV, but the result of a massive team effort taking in a whole range of sciences. THat's the difference between prediction and forecast ;)

Now, has anyone ever read "Fundamentals" by Bob Cassidy? This is one of the books he actually shipped before he became trading Standards' Most Wanted. Someone mentioned metal bending being out if you take a psychological stance. Yes, it is if you think about it, because it doesn't really fit. Cassidy talks about developing a "sub-script", a detailed description of how your abilities came about, and more importantly, what their limitations are.

    "Now ask yourself if you have the knowledge, physical characteristics,
    education and background to plausibly portray the character you have
    invented. It would be extremely difficult, for example, for an eighteen
    year old to convincingly portray a parapsychologist or a professor of
    metaphysics."

He's not suggesting that an eighteen-year-old can't do mentalism (as others have repeatedly misread to inform their own prejudices, it seems), just that his sub-script needs to fit who he is. Maybe he fell off his skateboard and realised he could hear the thoughts of others, for instance. But it wouldn't work if he said he'd discovered an ancient who taught him the power of the mind during a ten year trek through Outer Mongolia.

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Postby Part-Timer » Nov 24th, '07, 13:27

AndyRegs wrote:If I watched the same program in the light of day, I would have a giggle at it (why do 'ghosts' only come out at night?)


I don't want to get too OT, but my answer to that is that it depends upon what you think a ghost is. If it's some kind of psychic residue, rather than a disembodied spirit, then perhaps people are more sensitive to such things when they get less information from their primary sense (sight in most people).

Or maybe they tend to imagine more!

Having said that, these things are not completely black and white. Is there a difference say between claiming to be talking to someones dead husband, and just a random chanelling of a spirit for an effect.


I'd say yes. The former is getting personal, and has shades of con-artistry (although I think a lot of mediums might genuinely believe they have some kind of gift). They both promote the idea of life after death, and that spirits can be contacted, but a random channeling of a spirit can be done with a comic, or light-hearted tone. See Eugene Burger's discussion of tone in 'Spirit Magic'.

In 'Phenomenon', I think Jim Carroll sailed a bit close to the wind by picking a named individual, but he apparently chose someone with no known living relatives, so he was obviously trying to make his performance dramatic, without upsetting anyone.

It seems that there is a bit of a split between the 'I talk to the dead' camp and the 'fusion of magic, psychology...' camp. Isn't there a third possibility...you can read thoughts...telepathy...etc.


Not just three camps, but many more. It's a bit like political affiliation, or religious belief. What about metal-bending? What about other sorts of PK? Remote viewing? Predicting headlines (potentially very iffy morally)?

You're absolutely right, though: just because someone portrays his mind reading as 'psychic' doesn't automatically mean he believes in, or promotes belief in, spiritualism.

VoodooMick wrote:I know the above quote was probably intended to be tongue-in-cheek but why do psychics have to know "everything"?! It seems so unfair!
Why does being psychic have to become synonymous with "absolutely-invincible-and-without-limitation"? What a load of tut!


That was the point I was making earlier. Who said that psychics have to know it all, 100% accurately, all of the time? Of course, it's convenient to psychics that they don't have to show this, but equally convenient to scpetics (of the psychic-bashing variety) to claim that psychic ability must be like a tap, to be turned on and off at will.

As to the weather forecasts, they may be subject to fines for getting it wrong, but the BBC are hopeless. Earlier this week, they were forecasting raing for the next day (I think it was Wednesday's website forecast for Thursday). By Thursday morning, the forecast for the day, and the next couple of days, had changed completely. Obviously they couldn't both be right!

With weather forecasting, the underlying science is known and accepted. The problem is that, in the UK more than many other areas of the world, it's very difficult to put the theory into practice, even with sophisticated computers. There are so many factors at work, that it's often impossible to say what will happen when, even only a day in advance.

As such, I'd say that the distinctions between predicting the future and predicting the weather are that:

The process for the latter is known.
The former involves even more factors, so arguably any attempt to predict the future in general is absurd, even if you had all the relevant information. And you usually don't.

On the other hand, maybe there are forces at work that are not understood. :wink:

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Postby AndyRegs » Nov 24th, '07, 20:52

I'm not questioning your abilities but just curious as to where we can listen to this radio interview


Out of curiosity I googled it. In order to not light a fuse here on TM I will bite my tongue, except to say the claim seems a rather bold (if not vulgar) one.

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Postby greedoniz » Nov 25th, '07, 01:09

Part-Timer wrote:That was the point I was making earlier. Who said that psychics have to know it all, 100% accurately, all of the time? Of course, it's convenient to psychics that they don't have to show this, but equally convenient to scpetics (of the psychic-bashing variety) to claim that psychic ability must be like a tap, to be turned on and off at will.


In order to answer this I first think you have to grasp the fundamentals of scientific method.
In the 1700's David Hume said that (Parapharasing) presenting any science as a constant is an incorrect assumption, "How do you know the sun will come up in the morning?" "because it always has".
This is a conclusion derived from habit not logic. No matter how many events (generally) we observe there can always be an exception.
However scientific method is designed to take this into account and instead of trying to establish what is deifintely true it instead take an hypothesis and attempts to disprove it using empirical data.
As I have stressed many times (and ignored) if any phenomena, even if slightly off an on in the accuracy stakes, proves to have any ilk above guess work (and one guess that turns out to be true doesn't count) then it will show up in the subsequent data and thus will be noted as such.
This has yet to happen in an independent study of such phenomena.
I once gave an analogy of a hypochondraic and doctor. The doctor does all the tests and finds nothing wrong but the hypochondriac knows there is something up and anything the doctor says is discounted as it doesn't fit in with the patients mindset (He wishes something to be wrong - Wishes do not make truth).
Yes the doctor could be wrong but the far, far higher likelyhood is that the hypochondraic is in a deluded state.

So I come back to my previous and yet unanswered questions. Prove it? or better still. Why not prove it?

The truth fears no question

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Postby Palmer Eldritch » Nov 25th, '07, 10:23

I whole heartedly agree with Spider... I mean greedoniz; although in fairness, it should be pointed out that the belief that the sun will rise tomorrow, based on previous data is logical - it's just that inductive reasoning is as flawed as Yellowstone's tectonic plates on a particularly bad day.
</end pedantic outburst>

Wouldn't it be nice if we could just skip the double blinds and outright demand an explanation of the mechanics of being a medium?
Although I guess that would be somewhat akin to asking Steve Davis for an explanation of Brownian motion or Torvill and Dean how ice crystals form.

Ah screw it; wouldn't it be nice if we could pour all the table rapping charlatans into a dimensionally transcendental "magic box" before vigorously jabbing "magical" swords into it over and over and over and...

Oh my, I got carried away again :shock:

Of course if the box was dimensionally transcendental the occupants could all too easily dodge the swords... The only sure way would be to have the box fold inwardly into something like a tesseract, thus (hopefully) shredding the occupants with the mathematical precision that only a 4D razor can yield.

Ah, and again :?

Seriously though, I intend no offence. My position on such things largely depends on what mood you catch me in. I could just as easily have stumbled on this thread and wholeheartedly defended psychics. I guess that makes me flakier than a medium with eczema.

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Postby B0bbY_CaT » Nov 25th, '07, 10:43

I'd love to see John Edward & Sylvia Brown take a "surprise polygraph"... not a "come see me a week from Tuesday and we'll do it" type polygraph... they are too easy for the "right kind of person" to overcome... no, I'd like to see them take a "surprise! we're here to give you a lie detector test right now!" type polygraph...

would I like someone to spring that on me? of course not, but then I'm not the one claiming i can really talk to the spirit world AND more importantly charging handsomely for it...

as soon as you take someone's money... you really need to be accountable. That means to say "accountable" because you promise to entertain and you're entertaining OR if you want to suggest it is much more than entertainment (John Edward/Sylvia Brown for example) "accountable" in terms of proving you can do what you're being paid for.

of course the true believers and those with an interest in "believing" will say the only person that needs to be satisfied is the one paying the bill... (not skeptics like me who think both John Edward and Sylvia Brown are con artists...) fair call that.

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Postby Part-Timer » Nov 25th, '07, 14:06

greedoniz wrote:In order to answer this I first think you have to grasp the fundamentals of scientific method.


If you read my comment in context, you'll understand that I was commenting in response to VoodooMick about those who insist the psychics must be able to get something every time and be 100% accurate every time.

I was actually pointing out the absurdity of some of the sceptics, who don't really follow a scientific approach in their rush to have a go at psychics.

As I have stressed many times (and ignored) if any phenomena, even if slightly off an on in the accuracy stakes, proves to have any ilk above guess work (and one guess that turns out to be true doesn't count) then it will show up in the subsequent data and thus will be noted as such.

This has yet to happen in an independent study of such phenomena.


I don't know about the latter bit (but didn't want to remove it, as it's part of your overall statement.

I think the former bit is quite correct. As I said above, my view is that 'being psychic' is a form of intuition. Maybe the tests have been geared towards a more 'fictional' (Hollywood) type of paranormal ability, like the power to know what abstract shape is on a card, or psychokinetic metal bending. I am far from convinced such powers exist.

Does anyone know if a proper study has been made of readings? I'd imagine it'd be very hard to do a study because, by their very nature, readings are subjective.

I don't regard it as significant that, for example, a statement could be taken to apply to 90% of people. That is possibly a reflection of how close humans actually are to one another.

Even predictions about the future would be impossible to judge, unless you could somehow do the study without any of the sitters knowing what was happening.

Maybe something like Gene Nielsen's ability to know if someone is pregnant or not would be a bit easier to test. Has anyone ever tried to test that kind of power?

Going back to an earlier question from abraxus, I would still be willing to perform effects that simulate abilities such as ESP card reading, even though I'm not at all sure that it can be done for real, simply because they can be good theatre.

Yes the doctor could be wrong but the far, far higher likelyhood is that the hypochondraic is in a deluded state.


You clearly haven't had much experience of the medical community :wink: (Sorry, Farlsborough.)

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Postby Craig Browning » Nov 25th, '07, 14:44

Quote:
Yes the doctor could be wrong but the far, far higher likelyhood is that the hypochondraic is in a deluded state.


You clearly haven't had much experience of the medical community Wink (Sorry, Farlsborough.)


I had to chime in on this one...

For an estimated 25-30 years I was stigmatized by know-it-alls in the world as being a hypochondriac because of a mysterious, elusive series of conditions that would come and go... it wasn't until my early 40s that a doctor finally ran the one test that would reveal that I in fact had been dealing with Multiple Sclerosis all those years... Sadly, I'm not the only person with this sort of story in that it is grotesquely common.

But just so Part-Timer and that handful of other champions of the cause know they aren't alone, here's a little something from Oz TV

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ULUHbO60mOY

(sorry... we still can't post video here)

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Postby Michael Jay » Nov 25th, '07, 17:14

Craig Browning wrote:But just so Part-Timer and that handful of other champions of the cause know they aren't alone, here's a little something from Oz TV

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ULUHbO60mOY


I don't think that this video portrays your side in a very positive light. What I saw was a loud mouth shouting his competition down...

Then again, Randi is a schmuck and I've known this for years, anyway...

Mike.

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Postby Tomo » Nov 25th, '07, 17:27

Michael Jay wrote:I don't think that this video portrays your side in a very positive light. What I saw was a loud mouth shouting his competition down...

Quite apart from which, Doris Stokes was a verified fake. She used to keep her audiences out in the cold then go down the line apologising for the delay and asking why they'd come to see her! Not a very sophisticated method of hot reading, but effective.

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Postby Markdini » Nov 25th, '07, 17:30

My Favorite stokes story is the one where she "Channeled" One of the king Louis of france. Complte with head under his arm. The only problem with this was that the Louis she claimed the have channeld wasnt the one who got beheaded. I cant remeber the exact X's and V's and all that.

I am master of misdirection, look over there.

We are not falling out young Welshy, we are debating, I think farlsy is an idiot he thinks I am one. We are just talking about who is the bigger idiot.

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Postby Markdini » Nov 25th, '07, 17:37

Just reading her Wiki entry and came across this http://www.snu.org.uk/
There is a pyschic union. I take it they dont ballot to strike because they know the out come of the vote.

What can a medium do with a trade union any how? Two things I hate combined trade unions and fake mediums.

I am master of misdirection, look over there.

We are not falling out young Welshy, we are debating, I think farlsy is an idiot he thinks I am one. We are just talking about who is the bigger idiot.

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Postby Part-Timer » Nov 25th, '07, 21:36

I don't think that video is terribly flattering, but I suppose the point is that it's the boot being on the other foot for a change.

The host looked rather petulant, so it's not the best defence of the psychic line (pun intended) I've seen!

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